How long will your retirement savings last?

The original 4% rule assumes you increase your withdrawal amount each year by inflation, maintaining constant purchasing power. This calculator models a fixed nominal withdrawal for simplicity. In reality, most retirees adjust spending dynamically: they spend more in early active years, less in the middle years, and potentially more again in later years for healthcare. The fixed-withdrawal model gives a useful baseline; actual longevity depends on spending flexibility.

The default of 6% reflects a long-run real (after-inflation) return assumption for a balanced portfolio of US stocks and bonds. Historical nominal returns for a 60/40 portfolio have been approximately 8-9% before inflation. Conservative planners often use 5-6% to account for lower expected returns in the current environment. Very conservative assumptions might use 4%. The calculator lets you adjust this figure. A lower assumed return is more prudent for planning purposes; a higher return shows the upside scenario.

Yes, significantly. If you receive Social Security income, that reduces the amount you need to withdraw from your portfolio each year. The average Social Security benefit in 2025 is approximately $1,800 per month ($21,600 per year). If your spending is $50,000 per year and Social Security covers $21,600, you only need to withdraw $28,400 from your portfolio, substantially extending your runway. For accurate planning, subtract guaranteed income (Social Security, pension, annuity) from your annual withdrawal number before entering it into the calculator.

A withdrawal rate above 4% means your savings may not sustain a 30-year retirement using historical data. This is a planning signal, not a crisis. Options include: retiring later to accumulate more; reducing spending; working part-time in early retirement; downsizing housing to release equity; or accepting a shorter runway if in good health. The 4% threshold is context-dependent: a 55-year-old retiring early needs a 40+ year runway and should be more conservative; a 70-year-old has a shorter statistical horizon and may safely draw down at a higher rate.

A common rule of thumb is 25x your annual expenses (the inverse of the 4% rule). If you plan to spend $60,000 per year, you need approximately $1,500,000. However, Social Security or State Pension income reduces the amount you need from savings. The median American has $200,000 in retirement accounts at age 65-74, which would support roughly $8,000-$10,000 per year at a 4-5% withdrawal rate. Combined with the average Social Security benefit of approximately $1,907/month, many retirees manage on less savings than the 25x rule suggests. Your specific number depends heavily on your planned spending and any guaranteed income sources.

The 4% rule remains a useful starting point, but several factors challenge its assumptions. Current bond yields have historically been lower than the averages used in Bengen's original study, which may reduce portfolio returns for conservative allocations. Bengen's original analysis used US-only data; international markets have shown lower long-term returns. Retirees living longer than 30 years (retiring at 55 or earlier) need a lower withdrawal rate. Some researchers now suggest a 3.3-3.5% initial withdrawal rate for greater safety. The rule's core insight remains sound, and flexible withdrawal strategies allow higher initial rates by spending less in down markets.

Social Security (US) or State Pension (UK) income directly reduces the amount you need to withdraw from savings, extending your runway significantly. The average US Social Security benefit in 2025 is approximately $1,907/month ($22,884/year). If your total spending need is $50,000/year and Social Security covers $23,000, you only need $27,000/year from savings. At a 4% withdrawal rate, that requires $675,000 rather than $1,250,000. In the UK, the full new State Pension is approximately £11,500/year (2024-25). Delaying Social Security from 62 to 70 increases monthly benefits by roughly 77%, which can dramatically change runway calculations.

Early retirement fundamentally changes the calculation in two ways. First, your runway needs to be longer: potentially 35-45 years rather than 20-30, which means a lower safe withdrawal rate (3-3.5% rather than 4%). Second, you will not have access to Social Security until 62 (reduced) or 67 (full benefits in the US), or State Pension until 66-68 in the UK, creating a gap period where savings must cover 100% of expenses. Healthcare costs before Medicare eligibility at 65 are also a significant US factor. A $1,000,000 portfolio at age 55 with a 3.5% withdrawal rate provides $35,000/year, which may not cover all expenses before government benefits begin.

According to the Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances (2022): under 35, the median is $18,880; ages 35-44: $45,000; ages 45-54: $115,000; ages 55-64: $185,000; ages 65-74: $200,000. The enormous gap between median and mean at every age group reveals extreme right-skew: a small number of high savers pull the average far above what the typical person has. Only about 50-63% of Americans have any retirement savings at all, depending on age group. The median is the honest benchmark. See also our average savings by age calculator for a more detailed comparison.