How many years do you actually have left?

Jha et al. (2013) found current smokers lose approximately 10 years of life expectancy compared to never-smokers. Quitting before age 40 recovers nearly all the lost years (remaining penalty 1–2 years). Quitting before 50 recovers about 6 of the 10 lost years.

The Global BMI Mortality Collaboration (2016) found a clear relationship: a BMI of 30–34.9 was associated with 2–4 fewer years; BMI 35–39.9 with 5–8 fewer years; BMI 40+ with 8–14 fewer years, compared to a BMI of 22.5–25 (lowest risk range).

Arem et al. (2015) found that meeting the recommended 150 minutes per week of moderate exercise was associated with approximately 3.4–4.5 additional years of life. Even 75–149 minutes per week provided 1.5–3 additional years. The biggest gain comes from moving from sedentary to any exercise at all.

Conditional probability. Each year you survive, your remaining expectancy is recalculated from a smaller, healthier pool. A 65-year-old has already beaten the mortality risks of ages 0–64. The "life expectancy at birth" figure (73.5 for US males) is not the relevant number for someone who has already reached 65.

Population-level life tables are highly accurate for predicting average outcomes across large groups, but they have limited precision for individuals. The CDC and ONS tables are based on millions of death records and give the best available estimate for a given age and sex. Individual variation is enormous: genetics, medical history, socioeconomic status, and luck all play roles no calculator can capture. Think of the result as a statistical centre point, not a personal prediction. Your actual lifespan could be 20 years shorter or 20 years longer than the estimate.

The gap is significant and has widened in recent years. UK life expectancy at birth is approximately 78.6 years for males and 82.6 years for females (ONS 2020-2022). US figures are lower: 73.5 for males and 79.3 for females (CDC NVSS 2021). The US disadvantage relative to other high-income nations is primarily driven by higher rates of deaths from accidents, homicide, cardiovascular disease, and since the mid-2010s, opioid-related mortality. Among wealthy nations, the US ranks poorly despite the highest per-capita healthcare spending in the world.

This calculator adjusts for age, sex, smoking, BMI, and exercise. It does not account for: family history and genetics, specific medical conditions such as diabetes or heart disease, socioeconomic status (which correlates with a 10 to 15-year life expectancy gap between the richest and poorest), race and ethnicity, alcohol consumption, diet quality, mental health, access to healthcare, or environmental exposures. A comprehensive actuarial assessment would include dozens of variables. This calculator provides a useful starting point adjusted for the most impactful modifiable risk factors.

Use the estimate as a general input, not a precise number. Financial planners typically recommend planning for a lifespan 5 to 10 years beyond your life expectancy estimate to avoid outliving your savings. Actuarial estimates are averages: roughly half of people will live longer than the estimate. For significant financial decisions such as retirement planning, annuity purchases, or estate planning, consult a certified financial planner or actuary who can provide a personalised assessment using far more detailed inputs.

Yes. US life expectancy dropped significantly during 2020-2021 due to COVID-19, falling from 78.8 years in 2019 to 76.4 in 2021. By 2022, it had partially recovered to 77.5. The UK experienced a smaller decline. Long-term, life expectancy had been rising steadily for decades (US gained about 10 years between 1950 and 2019). Whether the pre-pandemic trajectory will resume, or whether factors like the opioid crisis and rising obesity will slow gains permanently, is an active area of research.

The most recent CDC NVSS data (preliminary 2022 data released in 2023) shows US life expectancy at birth of approximately 76.4 years for the overall population — 73.5 years for males and 79.3 years for females. This represents a partial recovery from the 2021 low (76.1 years) which was the lowest US life expectancy since 2003, driven by COVID-19 deaths. Pre-pandemic, US life expectancy peaked at approximately 78.8 years in 2019. The US has consistently ranked below peer wealthy nations: the UK stands at approximately 80.7 years (2020-2022 average), Australia at approximately 83 years, and Japan at approximately 84 years. The causes of the US shortfall relative to peers are well-studied: higher rates of gun violence and accidents among younger adults, higher obesity rates, the impact of the opioid crisis, and higher cardiovascular disease mortality. US life expectancy also varies dramatically by state, with Mississippi at approximately 71.9 years and Hawaii at approximately 80.7 years (2021 data).

Diet is one of the modifiable factors with the largest impact on life expectancy in population studies. Willett et al. (2019, The Lancet, EAT-Lancet Commission) estimated that shifting from typical Western dietary patterns to optimal diets (high in fruits, vegetables, legumes, whole grains, and nuts; low in red and processed meat, added sugar, and refined carbohydrates) could prevent approximately 10.9 million premature deaths globally each year. At the individual level, a 2021 study by Fadnes et al. (PLOS Medicine) estimated that a 20-year-old switching from a typical Western diet to an "optimal diet" could gain approximately 10.7 years of life (male) or 10.4 years (female). Even partial improvements — increasing legume intake, reducing processed meat — were associated with 1-3 years of additional life expectancy. The Mediterranean diet, specifically, has been studied in multiple large trials. The PREDIMED trial (Estruch et al., 2018, New England Journal of Medicine, n=7,447) found a 31% reduction in major cardiovascular events among participants following a Mediterranean diet supplemented with olive oil or nuts compared to a low-fat control diet. Dietary quality is likely the single most modifiable factor for longevity among the general population, ahead of exercise, sleep, and other lifestyle factors in terms of attributable life-years.